The ledger

The 2026 Nobel Prize in Physics, scheduled to be announced on 2026-10-06, will be awarded to exactly three laureates.

made

2026-09-28

resolves

2026-10-07

source

The Nobel Foundation's official announcement, nobelprize.org/prizes/physics/2026/summary/, and the Nobel Foundation's API, api.nobelprize.org/2.1/nobelPrizes?nobelPrizeYear=2026&nobelPrizeCategory=phy

The 2026 Nobel Prize in Chemistry, scheduled to be announced on 2026-10-07, will be awarded to exactly three laureates.

made

2026-09-07

resolves

2026-10-08

source

The Nobel Foundation's official announcement, nobelprize.org/prizes/chemistry/2026/summary/

The 2026 Arctic sea ice minimum extent, as reported by the National Snow and Ice Data Center, will rank among the five lowest annual minimums in the satellite record (1979-present).

made

2026-08-24

resolves

2026-10-15

source

NSIDC Arctic Sea Ice News & Analysis annual minimum extent announcement and Sea Ice Index, nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews

Python 3.15.0 final (not a release candidate) will be released on or before 2026-10-31.

made

2026-08-22

resolves

2026-11-01

source

python.org/downloads release listing, cross-checked against the release schedule PEP for Python 3.15

The 2026 MLB World Series will go to at least six games; that is, it will not end 4-0 or 4-1.

made

2026-09-14

resolves

2026-11-09

source

MLB.com postseason results, mlb.com/postseason, cross-checked against Baseball-Reference's 2026 World Series page, baseball-reference.com/postseason/ (Game 1 is scheduled for 2026-10-23 and a Game 7 for 2026-10-31)

PostgreSQL 19.0, the first stable (non-beta, non-RC) release of the PostgreSQL 19 major version, will be released on or before 2026-11-30.

made

2026-08-31

resolves

2026-12-01

source

Official PostgreSQL release notes and versions list, postgresql.org/docs/release/ and postgresql.org/support/versioning

The BEA advance estimate of US real GDP growth for the third quarter of 2026 (seasonally adjusted annual rate, headline figure), as first published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on or before 2026-11-30, will be 2.5% or higher. If no advance estimate for Q3 2026 has been published by 2026-11-30, this resolves as not having happened.

made

2026-09-07

resolves

2026-12-01

source

US Bureau of Economic Analysis news release 'Gross Domestic Product, Third Quarter 2026 (Advance Estimate)', bea.gov/news (scheduled for 2026-10-29)

Grand Theft Auto VI will be released, meaning available for the general public to buy and play on PlayStation 5, on or before 2026-11-30.

made

2026-09-28

resolves

2026-12-01

source

Rockstar Games' official Grand Theft Auto VI page, rockstargames.com/VI, and the Rockstar Newswire, rockstargames.com/newswire (the VI page gave a release date of November 19, 2026 on 2026-09-28), cross-checked against the release date in the English Wikipedia article 'Grand Theft Auto VI', en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto_VI

The TSA checkpoint travel numbers page will show NO single day between 2026-09-14 and 2026-11-30 inclusive with more than 3,134,613 passengers screened; that is, the single-day record set on 2025-11-30 will not be broken in that window.

made

2026-09-14

resolves

2026-12-04

source

TSA checkpoint travel numbers, tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes, as posted on the resolution date (daily figures are posted on weekdays, one to three days after the fact)

EIA's weekly history of Lower 48 states working natural gas in underground storage will show at least 3,750 billion cubic feet (Bcf) for at least one report week ending on or before 2026-11-27, as shown on 2026-12-05.

made

2026-09-28

resolves

2026-12-05

source

US Energy Information Administration, 'Lower 48 States Natural Gas Working Underground Storage' weekly history table, eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/nw2_epg0_swo_r48_bcfw.htm (it read 3,351 Bcf for the week ending 2026-09-18), cross-checked against the Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report at ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

The season summary table on the National Hurricane Center's 2026 Atlantic tropical cyclone reports page, as shown on 2026-12-07, will list 9 or fewer named storms for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season.

made

2026-09-21

resolves

2026-12-07

source

NHC Tropical Cyclone Reports index for the 2026 Atlantic season, nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2026&basin=atl (the 'Named Storms' cell of its season summary table; it read 6 on 2026-09-21), cross-checked against the NHC Atlantic season summary at nhc.noaa.gov/data/ and Wikipedia '2026 Atlantic hurricane season'

The target range for the US federal funds rate in effect on 2026-12-10, per the most recent FOMC statement issued on or before that date, will have an upper bound of 4.00% or higher.

made

2026-09-07

resolves

2026-12-11

source

Federal Reserve Board FOMC statements and meeting calendar, federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm (the December 2026 meeting is scheduled for 2026-12-08 and 2026-12-09)

Mercedes will win the 2026 FIA Formula One World Constructors' Championship: it will hold first place in the constructors' standings shown on formula1.com on 2026-12-10, after the final round of the season (the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, scheduled for 2026-12-06).

made

2026-09-07

resolves

2026-12-11

source

Official Formula 1 constructors' standings, formula1.com/en/results/2026/team, cross-checked against the FIA's official classification at fia.com

The US CPI-U all-items 12-month percent change, not seasonally adjusted, for the reference month of November 2026 will be between 1.5% and 4.0% inclusive.

made

2026-08-22

resolves

2026-12-31

source

US Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI news release for November 2026, series CUUR0000SA0

Tottenham Hotspur will NOT be in one of the bottom three positions (18th, 19th or 20th) of the 2026-27 Premier League table as shown on 2027-01-01, including any points deductions the table then reflects; that is, it will stand 17th or higher.

made

2026-09-28

resolves

2027-01-01

source

The league table in the English Wikipedia article '2026–27 Premier League', en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026%E2%80%9327_Premier_League (it showed Tottenham 20th with 2 points from 5 matches, updated to matches played on 2026-09-20), cross-checked against the BBC Sport Premier League table, bbc.com/sport/football/premier-league/table, and the official table at premierleague.com/en/tables/premier-league

The CoinGecko daily closing price of Bitcoin in USD on 2027-01-01 will be higher than its daily closing price on 2026-09-01.

made

2026-08-22

resolves

2027-01-02

source

CoinGecko historical daily close (UTC) for BTC/USD, coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin/historical_data

The S&P 500 index's official closing value on 2026-12-31 will be higher than 7,718.60, its closing value on 2026-09-04.

made

2026-09-07

resolves

2027-01-02

source

S&P Dow Jones Indices, spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/equity/sp-500/, cross-checked against the FRED series SP500, fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500

Box Office Mojo's Domestic Yearly Box Office table will show a total gross for calendar year 2026 of less than $10,000,000,000 (ten billion US dollars), as shown on 2027-01-10.

made

2026-10-05

resolves

2027-01-10

source

Box Office Mojo, Domestic Yearly Box Office, boxofficemojo.com/year/, the Total Gross cell of the 2026 row (it read $7,862,410,871 on 2026-10-05; the 2025 row reads $8,656,639,252), cross-checked against The Numbers' 2026 domestic calendar-year total, the-numbers.com/market/2026/summary

The 'Orbital launches' summary box of the English Wikipedia article '2026 in spaceflight', as shown on 2027-01-15, will give a Total of at least 320 orbital launch attempts for calendar year 2026.

made

2026-09-21

resolves

2027-01-15

source

English Wikipedia, '2026 in spaceflight', en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_in_spaceflight, the 'Total' row of the 'Orbital launches' summary box (it read 228 on 2026-09-21), cross-checked against Jonathan McDowell's GCAT launch list, planet4589.org/space/gcat/tsv/launch/launch.tsv, rows dated 2026 with LaunchCode beginning O

The SILSO monthly mean total sunspot number for December 2026, as shown in the World Data Center SILSO monthly mean total sunspot number file (SN_m_tot_V2.0.txt) on 2027-01-15, will be below 100.0. If no December 2026 value is shown there by 2027-01-15, this resolves as not having happened.

made

2026-09-28

resolves

2027-01-15

source

Royal Observatory of Belgium, WDC-SILSO, monthly mean total sunspot number, sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/SN_m_tot_V2.0.txt (the same series is tabulated at sidc.be/SILSO/datafiles; the file read 76.0 for August 2026 on 2026-09-28). Provisional values are marked with an asterisk in the file; the value shown on the resolution date, provisional or not, is the one that resolves

The 'Total storms' field of the season infobox in the English Wikipedia article '2026 Pacific typhoon season', as shown on 2027-01-15, will give an official count of at least 34 named storms for the 2026 season. Where that field shows an official count followed by a separate unofficial count (as '27, 1 unofficial'), the official count is the one that resolves.

made

2026-10-05

resolves

2027-01-15

source

English Wikipedia, '2026 Pacific typhoon season', en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Pacific_typhoon_season, the 'Total storms' field of the infobox (it read 29 on 2026-10-05, with 11 typhoons), cross-checked against the Japan Meteorological Agency's RSMC Tokyo best track data, jma.go.jp/jma/jma-eng/jma-center/rsmc-hp-pub-eg/besttrack.html

The MTA's 'Daily Ridership and Traffic: Beginning 2020' dataset on data.ny.gov will show, as of 2027-01-15, at least one day between 2026-10-01 and 2026-12-31 inclusive with a Subway count (estimated subway ridership) of 4,800,000 or more.

made

2026-10-05

resolves

2027-01-15

source

New York State Open Data, 'MTA Daily Ridership and Traffic: Beginning 2020', dataset sayj-mze2, data.ny.gov/d/sayj-mze2, rows with mode 'Subway' (via the API, data.ny.gov/resource/sayj-mze2.json?mode=Subway; the highest day so far was 4,687,841 on 2026-09-23 and the highest in October-December 2025 was 4,654,787 on 2025-12-11), cross-checked against the MTA's own ridership pages at mta.info

The US unemployment rate (U-3, seasonally adjusted, series LNS14000000) for the reference month of December 2026 will be 4.3% or higher.

made

2026-08-31

resolves

2027-01-20

source

US Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation news release for December 2026, bls.gov/news.release/empsit.htm

NOAA Climate Prediction Center's Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) for the October-November-December 2026 season, as shown in the CPC RONI table on 2027-02-01, will be +2.5 or higher. If no OND 2026 value is shown there by 2027-02-01, this resolves as not having happened.

made

2026-09-14

resolves

2027-02-01

source

NOAA Climate Prediction Center RONI table, cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/ (a season's value is normally posted in the first days of the following month, so OND 2026 should appear in early January 2027)

The 'Content pages' count shown at en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:Statistics (the English Wikipedia article count) will be 7,300,000 or higher on 2027-02-01.

made

2026-09-14

resolves

2027-02-01

source

English Wikipedia Special:Statistics, en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:Statistics, cross-checked against the milestones table at en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Size_of_Wikipedia

Fraunhofer ISE's annual analysis of German public net electricity generation for calendar year 2026, published on or before 2027-01-31 as an ISE press release or an energy-charts.info report, will state a renewable share of net public electricity generation of at least 57.0 percent. If no such analysis is published by 2027-01-31, this resolves as not having happened.

made

2026-09-14

resolves

2027-02-01

source

Fraunhofer ISE press releases, ise.fraunhofer.de/en/press-media/press-releases.html, and the energy-charts.info downloads page, energy-charts.info/downloads.html (the 2025 analysis was published 2026-01-01)

Avengers: Doomsday, scheduled for theatrical release on 2026-12-18, will show a worldwide gross of at least $1,000,000,000 on Box Office Mojo's 2026 worldwide box office chart as shown on 2027-01-31. If the film has not been released, or does not appear on that chart, by 2027-01-31, this resolves as not having happened.

made

2026-09-21

resolves

2027-02-01

source

Box Office Mojo, 2026 worldwide box office chart, boxofficemojo.com/year/world/2026/, cross-checked against The Numbers, the-numbers.com/box-office-records/worldwide/all-movies/cumulative/released-in-2026

NOAA NCEI's Climate at a Glance will show a contiguous US average temperature for December 2026 of 35.0 degrees Fahrenheit or higher, as shown on 2027-02-01. If no December 2026 value is shown there by 2027-02-01, this resolves as not having happened.

made

2026-10-05

resolves

2027-02-01

source

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Climate at a Glance, national time series, contiguous US average temperature, December, ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/national/time-series/110/tavg/1/12/1895-2026 (the same series as CSV at the same path with .csv appended; December 2025 read 37.83 on 2026-10-05), cross-checked against NCEI's monthly US climate report for December 2026 at ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/

The NASA Exoplanet Archive 'All Exoplanets' confirmed-planet count will reach at least 6,600 on or before 2027-02-01.

made

2026-08-24

resolves

2027-02-02

source

NASA Exoplanet Archive counts page, exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/docs/counts_detail.html

NASA GISS will rank 2026 among the five warmest years in its surface temperature record, in the annual analysis it publishes in January or February 2027.

made

2026-08-22

resolves

2027-02-15

source

NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies GISTEMP annual temperature analysis, data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp

arXiv's monthly submission statistics will show at least 35,000 new submissions in at least one calendar month from October 2026 to January 2027 inclusive, as displayed at arxiv.org/stats/monthly_submissions on 2027-02-15.

made

2026-09-14

resolves

2027-02-15

source

arXiv monthly submission statistics, arxiv.org/stats/monthly_submissions (the same data as CSV at arxiv.org/stats/get_monthly_submissions)

Nintendo's investor-relations 'Dedicated video game sales units' page will show worldwide life-to-date sales of Nintendo Switch 2 hardware of at least 30.00 million units as of December 31, 2026, as shown on 2027-02-15. If the page does not show figures as of December 31, 2026 by 2027-02-15, this resolves as not having happened.

made

2026-09-21

resolves

2027-02-15

source

Nintendo Co., Ltd. IR 'Dedicated video game sales units', nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/hard_soft/index.html (it read 23.68 million as of June 30, 2026), cross-checked against Nintendo's consolidated results for the nine months ending December 31, 2026 at nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/

The LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA public alerts listing on GraceDB will, as shown on 2027-02-15, list at least three significant gravitational-wave detection candidates (superevents) that are not marked as retracted and whose event times (UTC) fall between 2026-11-01 and 2027-01-31 inclusive, counted across every observing run listed there.

made

2026-09-28

resolves

2027-02-15

source

GraceDB public superevents, gracedb.ligo.org/superevents/public/ (significant candidates are shown by default and retractions are marked; the listing covered runs O3 and O4 on 2026-09-28), cross-checked against the LVK observing plans page, observing.docs.ligo.org/plan/ (its 2026-09-03 update planned a run designated IR1 to begin early- to mid-November 2026)

Between 2026-09-01 and 2027-02-28 inclusive, at least one of OpenAI, Google DeepMind, or Anthropic will make generally available a newly named top-line frontier model — a new model name in its flagship line, not a point revision, a size variant, or a rename of an existing model.

made

2026-08-22

resolves

2027-03-01

source

Official announcement on the vendor's own blog or model documentation (openai.com, deepmind.google, anthropic.com), plus public availability in that vendor's API or consumer product

In the TIOBE Index published at tiobe.com/tiobe-index, Java's rating percentage will exceed C++'s rating percentage in the monthly index for at least one month between September 2026 and February 2027 inclusive.

made

2026-08-24

resolves

2027-03-01

source

TIOBE Index monthly rankings, tiobe.com/tiobe-index

The LBMA Gold Price PM auction result (USD per troy ounce) will close at or above $5,000.00 on at least one publication date between 2026-08-24 and 2027-02-28 inclusive.

made

2026-08-24

resolves

2027-03-01

source

LBMA Gold Price historical data, lbma.org.uk/prices-and-data/precious-metal-prices, cross-checked against Kitco historical gold price data (kitco.com)

The CoinGecko daily closing price of Ethereum (ETH/USD) will NOT reach $3,500 or higher on any day between 2026-08-31 and 2027-02-28 inclusive.

made

2026-08-31

resolves

2027-03-01

source

CoinGecko historical daily close (UTC) for ETH/USD, coingecko.com/en/coins/ethereum/historical_data

Jonathan McDowell's General Catalog of Artificial Space Objects (planet4589.org) will list more than 17,000 active payloads in Earth orbit on or before 2027-02-28.

made

2026-08-31

resolves

2027-03-01

source

Jonathan McDowell's General Catalog of Artificial Space Objects, planet4589.org/space/gcat, and the summary counts in Jonathan's Space Report, planet4589.org/space/jsr

APNIC Labs' IPv6 measurement for the world as a whole will show an 'IPv6 Capable' figure of 44.50% or higher on 2027-03-01, as shown on that date (the 'IPv6 Capable' percentage, not the 'IPv6 Preferred' one).

made

2026-09-21

resolves

2027-03-01

source

APNIC Labs IPv6 measurement, world (XA) page, stats.labs.apnic.net/ipv6/XA, and the World row of the summary table at stats.labs.apnic.net/ipv6 (it read 43.72% IPv6 Capable on 2026-09-20)

ClinicalTrials.gov will list at least 625,000 registered studies in total on 2027-03-01, as given by the totalStudies field of its public API's study-size statistics on that date.

made

2026-10-05

resolves

2027-03-01

source

ClinicalTrials.gov API v2, clinicaltrials.gov/api/v2/stats/size, field totalStudies (it read 605,599 on 2026-10-05), cross-checked against the study count shown on the ClinicalTrials.gov home page, clinicaltrials.gov

The US Energy Information Administration's Electric Power Monthly will report US utility-scale solar net generation (photovoltaic plus solar thermal, all sectors) for calendar year 2026 of at least 350,000 thousand megawatthours (350 TWh), in the first issue that contains December 2026 data.

made

2026-09-07

resolves

2027-03-15

source

EIA Electric Power Monthly, Table 1.1.A 'Net Generation from Renewable Sources: Total (All Sectors)', eia.gov/electricity/monthly/ (the issue with December data is normally published in late February)

Between 2026-09-01 and 2027-03-31 inclusive, SpaceX will conduct at least one Starship flight that reaches orbital velocity.

made

2026-08-22

resolves

2027-04-01

source

SpaceX official launch updates at spacex.com/launches, cross-checked against Wikipedia 'List of Starship launches'

Node.js 27.0.0, the first stable release (not an Alpha, RC, or nightly build) of the Node.js 27 major version, will be published on or before 2027-04-30.

made

2026-08-24

resolves

2027-05-01

source

Official Node.js release listing at nodejs.org/en/download/releases and the Node.js release schedule at github.com/nodejs/Release (schedule.json)

NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory's Mauna Loa monthly mean CO2 concentration for May 2027 will exceed 433.0 ppm.

made

2026-08-31

resolves

2027-06-15

source

NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory Mauna Loa CO2 monthly mean data, gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/mlo.html

Between 2026-09-01 and 2027-06-30 inclusive, at least one spacecraft from any nation or company will make a soft landing on the lunar surface and transmit data from the surface after landing.

made

2026-08-22

resolves

2027-07-01

source

Official announcements from the operating space agency or company, cross-checked against Wikipedia 'List of missions to the Moon'